Friday, August 29, 2014

Why I do not trade big board stocks

  Have had this question frequently "Why do you only trade OTC, Pink Sheets? and not Nasdaq (or AMEX, NYSE etc)"

A short answer is to just say go read "Flash Boys" by Michael Lewis. This book proves that there are people looking over your shoulder when you trade and trading against you!

The more detailed answer is I do not like trading against super computers and algorithms that people MUCH, MUCH smarter than me have put in place. Yes, part of it is High Frequency Traders but there is more. When I first time I day traded I traded AMZN..that was it.. in 100 share blocks against the trend with fast keys. What I was doing was trying to go along with the super computers and guess where they had been programmed to put orders in at the nano second and turn the price action. I would do 20 to 40 trades a day, looking for $15 to $20 per trade. Did not like it, it was weird being a human trying to figure out how a computer thinks considering a human programmed the computer. There are people that are very good it, including the guy that taught me how to do it, but again not my cup of tea. Watch AMZN for a week, I mean one week, from the open to the close, find the patterns, you will see them, BUT there are computers out there looking for and CREATING those patterns, they saw them before you did they know what you are going to do and they will bait and switch you to their advantage because they deal in micro-nano seconds...these are guys that pay TONS of money to be 1 foot (yes 12 inches) closer to the server and router where your orders go through. Oh yea, your BIG broker, the one that advertises on CNBC, you think they make their money off your $10 trade? They sell your data flow to the guys that program those computers, again for TONS of money. Those are the big leagues for you. To make a sports reference watch a high school game (anything, baseball, football, soccer (my favorite)) then watch college then watch the professionals, what is the major difference...SPEED, put a high schooler out there with the pros and it looks like they are standing still. I am a high school player so I am staying away from the pros that are going to blow right by and more than likely cause me bodily harm.

In OTC's (pink Sheets, OTCBB's etc) there are some computers around I am sure and have seen them changing orders when I am trying to get filled on the bid or the ask. However, in the pump and dump world you can tell when the vast majority of the shares of a stock are in the hands of insiders of the company and/or the promoters (pumpers). This is an advantage because knowing this you then know when they are NOT in their hands and instead in the hands of retail traders. The insiders and pumpers have a plan and so do the retail traders, and that is transparent!!! You can tell what the majority of the people holding the majority of shares are thinking and what they are planning to do, then it is just patient trend trading...SAFE AND EASY.

I know there are exceptions to each one of these (earnings, news, real companies in the OTC market) but I prefer to play on the side of caution and make my guaranteed money over 80% of the time.

As always any questions just let me know.

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